### Big Dance Analysis

I enter into NCAA pools yearly. I never win.

This year I did some analysis about the chances of a team making the final four based on seed. here are the results of my final four statistics.

Seed - Odds of Making the Final Four

1-37.93%

2-20.69%

3-14.66%

4-10.34%

5-4.31%

6-5.17%

7-0.86%

8-3.45%

9-0.86%

10-0%

11-1.72%

12-0%

13-0%

14-0%

15-0%

16-0%

So, based on my statistics I picked the following final four:

Florida, Kansas, Texas, Louisville

I am probably way wrong... But I think I will crack the code eventually.

Also, for grins I did a similar analysis on the winning percentage of teams by seed in the first round.

Seed - Odds of Winning in the First Round

1-100%

2-95%

3-83%

4-78%

5-66%

6-70%

7-61%

8-45%

9-55%

10-39%

11-30%

12-34%

13-22%

14-17%

15-5%

16-0%

This isn't meant to be advice. Just some numbers to prove that you weren't completely wrong when you initially filled in your bracket.

This year I did some analysis about the chances of a team making the final four based on seed. here are the results of my final four statistics.

Seed - Odds of Making the Final Four

1-37.93%

2-20.69%

3-14.66%

4-10.34%

5-4.31%

6-5.17%

7-0.86%

8-3.45%

9-0.86%

10-0%

11-1.72%

12-0%

13-0%

14-0%

15-0%

16-0%

So, based on my statistics I picked the following final four:

Florida, Kansas, Texas, Louisville

I am probably way wrong... But I think I will crack the code eventually.

Also, for grins I did a similar analysis on the winning percentage of teams by seed in the first round.

Seed - Odds of Winning in the First Round

1-100%

2-95%

3-83%

4-78%

5-66%

6-70%

7-61%

8-45%

9-55%

10-39%

11-30%

12-34%

13-22%

14-17%

15-5%

16-0%

This isn't meant to be advice. Just some numbers to prove that you weren't completely wrong when you initially filled in your bracket.

Labels: Bracketology, Final Four

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