Big Dance Analysis

I enter into NCAA pools yearly. I never win.

This year I did some analysis about the chances of a team making the final four based on seed. here are the results of my final four statistics.

Seed - Odds of Making the Final Four
1-37.93%
2-20.69%
3-14.66%
4-10.34%
5-4.31%
6-5.17%
7-0.86%
8-3.45%
9-0.86%
10-0%
11-1.72%
12-0%
13-0%
14-0%
15-0%
16-0%

So, based on my statistics I picked the following final four:
Florida, Kansas, Texas, Louisville

I am probably way wrong... But I think I will crack the code eventually.

Also, for grins I did a similar analysis on the winning percentage of teams by seed in the first round.

Seed - Odds of Winning in the First Round
1-100%
2-95%
3-83%
4-78%
5-66%
6-70%
7-61%
8-45%
9-55%
10-39%
11-30%
12-34%
13-22%
14-17%
15-5%
16-0%

This isn't meant to be advice. Just some numbers to prove that you weren't completely wrong when you initially filled in your bracket.